• Tuesday , 2 June 2020

How does the corona virus epidemic end?

Coronavirus epidemic

The new coronavirus is spreading at alarming rates all over the world. There are various ways to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection, such as lockdown, social distance generation, etc. Yet the number of people affected and dead is increasing. In such a tense situation, a question arises in everyone’s mind, how is the end of this epidemic?

Experts say there are some common features of an epidemic. They become very dangerous when Infectious diseases appear to be epidemic. The same is true for new coronaviruses. In the first phase, it was thought that the spread of the new coronavirus to source China could be limited. But that could not be done. Now it has spread all over the world.

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Researchers at the Department of Pathology say that if most people on the planet develop immunity to the disease, the incidence of COVID-19 may decrease gradually. Resistance to a particular disease is imposed in the human body only when someone is healed of the disease or receives a vaccine. Another possibility is that COVID-19 will continue to spread and gradually become a common respiratory virus.

Each epidemic has some ending process. It is difficult to predict which way the new coronavirus will proceed. Let’s look at some of the processes that can end the coronavirus epidemic:

  1. Containment

The new disease has the opportunity to be controlled or controlled in a specific region in the early stages of the outbreak. But in the case of the new coronavirus, that could not be done. As a result, the control of spreading the disease is limited to one area;

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says new coronavirus have already filled all three pandemics. First, it is infecting people and making them sick. Second, the disease is spreading easily from person to person. Third, the spread of the disease among different groups has taken the form of epidemics.

Quarantine, stop traveling, and other measures are very effective in controlling the spread of the virus. Aubrey Gordon, associate professor of pathology at the University of Michigan, says such steps are being taken around the world. But in this way, the new coronavirus spread becomes difficult to stop. Most importantly, control measures are being taken based on the information we have learned about the new virus. But we do not yet know all the details about the virus. As a result, humans have to fight with an unknown enemy. According to Aubrey Gordon, if the containment attempt fails completely, two other roads will remain open. The first way is that, if healthy after the attack, people will gradually develop resistance to the disease. Or if the right vaccine is discovered, people will become a corona virus resistant to it. Second, COVID-19 will continue to spread and become a common respiratory virus.

  1. The natural way

The epidemic ends only when the number of people susceptible to the new virus decreases. During the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918, more than 100 million people worldwide were infected. Many of them were soldiers. At the end of World War I, at one point, the army spread among the common people. At one point the spread of the Spanish flu automatically decreased. Because those who survived the flu, they developed the ability to prevent the disease. As a result, the virus was spreading in the beginning, and after it did not.

Joshua Epstein, a professor of pathology at New York University, says that if a new virus comes in contact with someone who is not susceptible to the virus (that is, the virus is unable to infect him), then the spread of the virus breaks. In case of an outbreak of infectious disease, usually, one is infected and he infected two. Four of them were again attacked. In this way, the number of infected persons increases. But when the virus can no longer infect a person while it is undergoing this cycle, that cycle breaks down. As a result, a situation arises that there are no more human beings to attack. Then the infection began to subside. However, this process is time-consuming.

There is another possibility. That is a mutation. SARS is also a coronavirus. It spread to China early in the century. Later it spread to more than 25 countries. When it reached Canada and North America, it was feared that it would spread widely and cause fatalities. But the severity of the SARS infection gradually came to an end.

One of the reasons was that the circus spread was controlled. The SARS virus, on the other hand, was ‘mutated’ very quickly. That made it even more terrifying, but it made it harder for people to get infected. As a result, the severity of SARS decreased.

  1. Vaccine

The simplest way to prevent any new virus – vaccine or vaccine – is to innovate. Alex Perkins, a pathology teacher at the University Of Notre Dame, says vaccines are a great way to prevent an epidemic. This is because the infection can be prevented and certain diseases can be developed in a large population of people. But making vaccines overnight is a difficult task. This is why many infectious diseases are not yet vaccinated.Vaccine

In the meantime, scientists around the world have jumped in to create a new coronavirus vaccine. But experts say, it can take up to six to 20 months to develop a new and effective vaccine. Vaccines for any disease on earth require a long time. This has been the case in the past. For this reason, nothing is certain about the new coronavirus vaccine. In this situation, the World Health Organization (WHO) says at least 20 vaccines are being worked out to prevent coronavirus. In the meantime, the experimental application of some vaccines has begun. In such a short time, no experimental vaccine has ever been started. Experimental application of these vaccines has begun in just 7 days of gene sequencing of COVID-19.

Still, no final decision on the new vaccine could be reached soon. Because, after several steps, a vaccine slowly reaches its peak. These include a huge cycle from the discovery of the vaccine to the successful examination of the animal’s body. There are step-by-step tight control measures like getting approval.

After all, there is a large amount of vaccine produced, marketed, and delivered to the general public at the grass-root level. This whole process is extremely complex and time-consuming.

  1. Changes in behavior

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious pathology at the University of Edinburgh, says the entire world is in crisis with ways to prevent new coronavirus outbreaks. Everyone has trouble figuring out how to get out of it. The pace of agitation is to change one’s lifestyle, behavior, and habits. It can reduce the spread of the new coronavirus.

The professor says that the presence of COVID-19 can be prevented somewhat by conducting diagnostic tests, confirming social distances, preventing the spread of the disease through strict isolation and quarantine when symptoms occur. In addition to this, steps should be taken to provide proper protection to the doctors and to ensure better treatment of the injured.coronavirus

  1. Resistance with existing drugs

Experts say it is not yet known whether Covid-19 can be prevented with any existing drug. In the meantime, some such drugs are thought to be effective in new coronaviruses. Several such drugs have already been identified in the United States. Since the creation of a new vaccine is time-consuming, the experimental application of some drugs already made is being talked about. It is reported that the Federal Drug Administration (FDA), the US regulatory body, may also grant the necessary permission to use certain drugs. The problem is, these drugs may or may not be useful in the fight against COVID-19. If these drugs are used to help improve the condition of the diseased, the situation may be a bit better. However, the effectiveness of this route will be known only if it is taken to the field.

Last thing: The World Health Organization says that eliminating a disease from the chest of the world is a very difficult task. Humans or other animals may somehow be exposed to any virus in their bodies. A new coronavirus also can. Although removed from humans, it can avoided in other animals. Later it can spread again. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, thinks that because the new coronavirus is so contagious, it will never disappear completely. It will remain in some form. Experts say the new coronavirus can survive as a chronic virus in the world. It can come back like a seasonal disease. However, it is difficult to predict precisely how a new virus will behave.

References: Live Science, Boston Globe, BBC, the Hill.com, ScienceNews.org, and The New York Times.

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